Marshall University Math Colloquium

September 24, 2004

“The winning probability and ranking models for teams in soccer tournaments”

Alfred Akinsete

Marshall University

Abstract

We discuss the statistical analysis of the 1993-2003 soccer results from the 20 teams in the FA Premier League (FAPLE). Using the Clarke-Norman (CLAMAN) model, we obtain the home advantage and strength of each team. The work focuses on ranking methodologies and develops new ranking models for teams in soccer tournaments. We show that the ranking, and the distance between any pair of teams prior to their encounter is equivalent to CLAMAN's model. The winning probabilities of a team defeating other teams in the league are obtained. These probabilities form a ranking procedure, and provide a source for the performance evaluation of each team in the tournament. The results show that our ranking models are adequate, evidently from the 2003/2004 end-of-year ladder. The work leads to further investigation of stochastic modeling of soccer data.